For the better part of the last 10 years one of my hobbies has been sampling the best the Internet has had to offer in investment research tools. I’ve dabbled in developing my own technical analysis algorithms, have done a fair amount of day trading and have taken some more traditional long positions in companies I believed in. Online investment tools have come quite a long way over the years, but one of the recent fads that the “Web 2.0″ wave of innovation has brought us is the concept of social investing.

Social investing sites such as Covestor.com, Cake Financial and several others have done a great job of bringing all types of (typically) non-professional investors together. Their sophisticated platforms allow members to enter their brokerage account login credentials (a little scary, but most of us swallow hard and do it anyway out of curiosity) in order for the site to “verify” your trades. Your trading activity is downloaded into the database and the site assigns a percentage of your portfolio each equity occupies. The number of shares (amount of cash you’re playing with) is not published in order to protect your privacy. The idea here is that, because the equities are verified by the site to exist in the member’s brokerage account, full-disclosure is satisfied and anything that member writes can be judged fairly by the readers. Many of the more active members on these sites keep blogs and write publicly-viewable messages about their rationale behind trades. In fact, when Covestor detects that you’ve made a trade in your brokerage account, they will email you asking for your rationale in the form of a mini blog post on covestor.com.

So, the first thing I did was pick the top 3 or 5 members on Covestor as ranked by their portfolios’ performance. The site has very nice graphs that show members’ performance against other indices like the S&P 500. After following a few of these members I noticed that a lot of their trades were solid (and common) like BUY APPL @ 110 or other fairly safe bets. This made their track records look decent and they typically edged out the market. Other equities they had would typically take up < 10-15% of their portfolio and would be very small-cap companies. These stocks would have a lot of blog posts associated with them and you could see the record of the member buying the stock all the way down a hill, often with comments to the effect of “time to load up, this one is on sale”, etc. Any time there was a pop in the price, you might see something to the affect of “you like that 200% gain today? More where that came from!”. But, the overall performance of the stock since the member initially bought in would typically be abysmal. Often you’ll see other members posing (publicly viewable) questions to the trader to the effect of, “I see you’re taking a bath on XYZ but you keep buying it up … you must have some inside info”, etc. That is often enough to get the degenerate-gambler-day-trader to jump in on the action and wait for that next 200% pop.

The first few of these I encountered made me think, “Well, the guy obviously believes in this stock because Covestor verified his ownership of it”. But, Covestor and others don’t publish how many shares the member owns! This trader could own literally 1 share to begin with and then keep buying 5 or 10 more as the price drops just to back up his public enthusiasm about the “sale”. Then, in another brokerage account not connected to Covestor (and therefore not publicly viewable), he may be making very different trades.

Call it pump-and-dump 2.0. It’s analogous to how the spam kings of yesteryear would pump penny stocks for a week then dump them after enough suckers bought in. I think Covestor and others are great sites with impressive platforms and very innovative features. The first one who figures out how to solve this problem, though, will certainly have the advantage. The only way I can think of off the top of my head would be if the site were to award different “badges” to positions in a trader’s portfolio. One badge could signify that the position is in excess of a certain dollar amount (proportionate to the share price). This would give users that track the trader a little more comfort in knowing that this is less likely to be a pump-and-dump trader.

BusinessWeek reporter Roben Farzad recently traveled to Columbia to determine whether or not the “third tier” (globally speaking) economy there was ready for mainstream foreign direct investment and an “equity culture”. From an investment perspective, Columbia is the next frontier after the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Its stock market has increased 14-fold since 2001 with a still modest total capitalization of $59 billion.

The one-time murder capital of the world and former home to infamous drug cartel Pablo Escobar, Medellín (pop 2.4mm) is reemerging as the commercial hub of the nation. The president, Alvaro Uribe, unlike most South American leftist leaders, sits right of center and has an approval rating above 60% in his now second term in office. His government is very much interested in attracting growth through foreign investment and understands that this can only be achieved by driving the paramilitary drug lords out of the urban commercial centers, which he’s made good progress at so far.

The U.S. has incentive to stay on good terms with and help Colombia grow as relations with Venezuela and Equador continue to deteriorate. The U.S. has sent $5 billion in aid since 2000 - the 4th largest financial aid recipient of the U.S.

The Colombian stock exchange, called Bolsa de Valores, is merely 12 people sitting in front of trading screen in an office building in Bogotá’s financial district. The exchange closes at 1PM because all business that needs to be transacted for the day is typically done by then. With such a limited number of buyers and sellers in their emerging market, volatility is the norm. In 2005 the Bolsa was up 128% (second best in the world that year). It took a 45% dip last year when many emerging markets were hit - second worst loss in the world. It is down 5% in 2007. Bolsa-listed stocks can only be bought with pesos and there are no Colombian mutual funds available to foreign investors.

Some upcoming public offerings on the Bolsa include Procafecol, a local coffee producer (Juan Valdez), and $4 billion state oil company Ecopetrol, which will likely get listed on the NYX. The only Colombian stock currently listed on the NYX is Bancolombia, whose shares are up 20-fold in the last 5 years.

U.S. investment banks have been buying up companies in Colombia and Colombian companies are slowly starting to export their products to the U.S. to grow faster. The two countries are on the verge of a free-trade agreement, something president Uribe is pushing hard for.

Although murders and other violence is dropping, infrastructure in Colombia continues to degrade and is in need of billions in investment. Many investors are waiting for that to happen to open the floodgates for other markets inside the country. The government is hesitant to break from its old-world traditions of owning all infrastructure, though. They are having trouble raising bond money because they can only deliver 6% returns instead of the 20% they yielded 10 years ago. Critics say there is plenty of private money waiting to fund the infrastructure projects if the government could just adopt an equity frame of mind instead.

The lengthy article has some great descriptions of his personal interactions in Colombia and some more detail on its violent history and how much better it is now. Extreme Investing: Inside Colombia

I follow alternative energy stocks fairly closely.  In particular, solar cell producers.  Many of the large producers are based in China where the government today announced that they are increasing a key transaction fee investors must pay to do business in that country.  That caused a 6.5% drop in China’s stock market and took a good bite (5-10%) out of most of these solar stocks.

In the interest of full disclosure, yes, I doubled-down on TSL (Trina Solar).

Sector Snap: Solar Cell Makers: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance